Do you want to know how coffee prices really work? Many coffee professionals spend years in the market without ever developing a deep understanding of how coffee prices actually work. And that’s perfectly fine: you don’t need to be a mathematician to have a successful career in coffee. However, there is a statistical framework that describes the way coffee price dynamics work: time series decomposition. This is not your normal casual social media reading. We’re going deep

The coffee market is at a turning point, transitioning from years of tight balances toward a more comfortable supply environment. At present, the inversion is still intense, and destination stocks remain historically low after being depleted by consecutive global deficits that drove high prices. However, today’s historically high prices will be hard to sustain if the global balance shifts as most expect: a large Brazilian crop is approaching and could drive a meaningful surp

Read Part 1 here The CTA Cupping System The Coffee Trading Academy Cupping System is a hybrid of the two methods we talked about in part 1 , that evaluates using a simple system across 4 categories. The Four Basic Categories (Acidity, Body, Flavor, Defects) The four categories evaluated are Acidity, Body, Flavor, and Defects. Acidity is the tartness experienced on the sides of the tongue in a good, black coffee. There are different types of acidity, for example citric i

This is part 1 of a two-part blog. Read part 2 here. Cupping is a unique and essential skill that is required of a coffee trader. Cupping, (i.e. coffee tasting or sensory analysis) is one of those peculiarities that makes being a coffee trader different from all the other types of physical traders out there. Sure, you might trade gold, cotton or oil, but can you take a sip of coffee and tell me, objectively, whether it is good or not? In this blog my goal is to provide you

2025 stood out as an unusual year of high prices in the coffee market. Following huge global deficits in 2021 and 2024, coffee stayed anchored to historically high prices, while experiencing significant volatility. Overall, 2025 unfolded in two phases: a bear market in the first half that failed to hold, and a bull market in the second half. Notably, price action reflected a changing mix of drivers, ranging from stocks and positioning to weather and political developments, a

Introduction 2025 was a tumultuous year for cocoa markets. Following the huge shortage of 2024, which led prices to reach their highest level in history, in the last year we saw a completely different picture, as the apocalyptic scenario of cocoa bean extinction did not materialize. Instead, traders were hit by a production rebound, while demand plummeted to its lowest level in almost a decade. As a result, cocoa did not carry on its dream of ever higher tops, but fell bac

Coffee While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest. Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb. In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows.

Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th . Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply. In this article, we analyze what this ye

Read Part 1 here Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance • Production: 700k–800k tons per year. • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern. • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero. • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each. • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug). • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD. • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD. • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports. Introduction In the first part of ou

This week, we analyze the impact of untimely rainfall in coffee and sugar-harvesting origins such as Central America, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand. We also assess improving weather forecasts across key cocoa and cotton regions, while highlighting the risks that still warrant close monitoring.

This week, we look at the risk of excessive rain forecast for Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, and Thailand, which could negatively affect key coffee and sugarcane regions during harvest. We also review improving weather outlooks across the major cocoa and cotton origins. Coffee Brazil rain forecasts are generally satisfactory going into the 26/27 crop growth phase, while the main risk to coffee crops at this point would be excess rain in Central America, Vietnam and Co

This week, we discuss the flooding in Asia affecting Thailand’s sugarcane crop and Vietnam’s coffee regions, alongside the untimely rains across Europe, the UK, and Central America impacting sugar beet and coffee. We also analyze the risk of unwelcome rain in key cocoa-producing areas of Africa.

Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance • Production: 700k–800k tons per year. • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern. • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero. • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each. • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug). • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD. • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD. • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports . Introduction Cocoa is a unique market in part because it i

Last week, the White House announced an agreement to cut certain U.S. import duties on goods from select Latin American (coffee-growing) countries, while fully removing the baseline 10% tariff applied to Brazilian products. In this article, we will provide a framework for understanding the tariff impact on the coffee market, then we will examine these tariff changes and explain their implications for coffee futures prices. Finally, we will see what the next tariff moves could

I wrestled with whether or not to write this. Last Saturday, my wife of 16 years passed away in hospice care. Andrea had been in a coma-like state for the previous 2 weeks. She went into cardiac arrest after an asthma attack while I was out getting pizza with the kids. No warning, no chance to say goodbye. A consoling friend said to me, "life, as it turns out, is incredibly fragile." Very true, and for someone who manages risk, my emotions were completely unprotected. We have

After 3 consecutive seasons in which sugar was highly lucrative and prompted greater production in Brazil, the tables have turned — ethanol is now yielding higher returns than sugar, marking the first time this has happened in over three years. Price parity between the two indicates that ethanol currently holds a premium of around 1 cent over sugar, a gap that widens as sugar prices decline. At the same time, Brazil has been boosting ethanol demand through measures such as t

Read Part one here : Cotton Origin Focus: China - Part 1 China Cotton Sector At-a-Glance Production: ~31 million bales annually (average last 5 years). Leading Region: Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (~90–93% of national output); minor production regions include Yellow-Huai (Hebei, Henan, Shandong) and Yangtze (Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui) river areas. Cotton Type: Primarily Upland cotton; Xinjiang produces significant volumes of premium Extra-Long Staple (ELS) cotton. F

China's economic slowdown has finally reached the cotton sector: this year, China imported only 2.4 million bales of cotton (Jan-Jul),...

China Cotton Sector At-a-Glance Production: ~31 million bales annually (average last 5 years). Leading Region: Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (~90–95% of national output); minor production regions include Yellow-Huai (Hebei, Henan, Shandong) and Yangtze (Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui) river areas. Cotton Type: Primarily Upland cotton; Xinjiang produces significant volumes of premium Extra-Long Staple (ELS) cotton. Farm Structure: Xinjiang dominated by large-scale mechaniz

The expansion of Robusta coffee production in recent years has coincided with a rise in demand, as elevated Arabica prices push more...