Read Part 1 here Introduction The US-Iran conflict shocked international markets and introduced upside and downside volatility across currencies, equities and commodities. Supply chains were disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important waterway passages for global commerce. Despite being deeply affected, though, cocoa prices remained relatively stable, as most impacts balanced each other out. In the first part of this blog series, we saw the m

When teaching about the coffee futures market, one common reaction we get from our students is a mix of confusion and discomfort: “How can there be just one major exchange setting rules for Arabica coffee all over the world?”. “Is it privately owned?”. “Isn’t that problematic?”. These are fair questions. Market dominance by a single corporation feels contrary to free and fair markets. While it is true that there are other peripheral Arabica coffee exchanges, like B3 futur

Coffee differentials have surged across distinct origins and varieties this year, especially so in Brazil, where past crops are being offered at multi-year highs in the physical market. This has effectively disrupted the build-up of ICE certified stocks, as differentials are not only far too high to justify delivery to the exchange, but also incentivize consumption of comparatively cheaper certified inventory. If unchecked, this draw down in certs could lead to rallying in th

Introduction At the end of February, the US and Israeli militaries launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint attack against the Iranian regime. This has involved extensive airstrikes, the destruction of the Iranian Leadership and retaliatory strikes against the US, Israel and their Arabian allies in the region. More significantly for the global economy, Iran has closed the strait of Hormuz, and the US has blockaded Iranian ports. Due to its extreme importance to the global ec