Global exports have been improving over the last two seasons, yet destination stocks remain low. The obvious conclusion is that consumption is good, with demand rapidly absorbing the incoming supply and keeping inventories under pressure. In this article, we’ll go deeper into this matter and explore the mechanisms that are keeping stocks low, including not only consumption, but also high carry costs as plausible explanations. We’ll look at the numbers and see what would need

Read Part 1 here Introduction The 2026/27 cocoa season is about to begin, promising to shake the foundations of the global markets once again. In the first part of this blog series, we walked through the possible 2026/27 weather scenarios caused by the current El Niño, and how they could affect the West African and South American crops. We also saw the current state of these origins, contrasting how they have fared in the last few seasons with what we can expect from them in

Few commodities have given traders as wild a ride as cocoa over the last three years. The 2023/24 West African shortage sent prices to levels no one thought possible, surpassing $12,000/MT. Then came the hangover, as demand buckled under those prices, grinding figures were crushed, supply began to recover, and the market collapsed all the way back toward $3,000/MT by early 2026. Now, though, the pages of history are about to turn once more, as we near the end of the 2025/26 s

Read Part 1 Here Origin Focus: Nigeria Nigeria At-a-Glance Production: Average production of approximately 250,000–300,000 tons annually over the past decade. Global Ranking: Typically the world's fourth- or fifth-largest cocoa producer and Africa's third-largest producer. Cocoa Types: Predominantly Forastero and improved hybrid varieties developed by the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN). Harvest: Main crop from October to January; mid-crop from April to June. Harve

The coffee market began the week with an extraordinary 49c/lb single-daily rally, the largest one in history on a cents-per-pound basis. When swings of this magnitude happen, questions naturally arise, and you may be asking yourself: “Why such a major rally? Why now?” “Was it because of frost scares in Brazil? Was it because of the El Niño?” In this article, we'll share our interpretation of what happened and explain the market mechanisms we believe were behind this rally tha

Read Part 2 Here Nigeria At-a-Glance Production: Average production of approximately 250–300 MMT annually over the past decade. Global Ranking: Typically the world's fourth or fifth-largest cocoa producer and Africa's third-largest producer. Cocoa Types: Predominantly Forastero and improved hybrid varieties developed by the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN). Harvest: Main crop from October to January; mid-crop from April to June. Harvesting: Entirely manual. Key Prod

We are often told that option Greeks are very complex, and in fact this complexity is one of the reasons that many business and traders fear options or steer clear of them altogether. However, the option Greeks exist for one very simple purpose: they convert the vague and chaotic nature of option pricing into orderly specifics that enable you to make decisions. You can trade options without understanding the greeks, and in fact, you can even be quite good at it. However, thi

Its no secret that many roasters and traders are scared of options. Over the last decade, my key function in the coffee industry has been to manage risk (and teach risk management) in the coffee market. Options are hands down one of the most valuable tools available for this purpose, and yet I have seen the same scene many times when discussing options with clients, colleagues and friends: a worried look and a grimace, followed by a quiet “oh, as a rule…we don’t trade options

Introduction Global cocoa markets are once again turning their attention to weather, as a strong El Niño is expected this year. After the 2023/24 cocoa shortage and a difficult production recovery in the following years, analysts had been anticipating improved cocoa production. Now, those hopes are under challenge, as meteorologists warn that a new El Niño event may emerge during the second half of 2026 and extend into early 2027. Cocoa production is highly weather-sensitive,

Read Part 1 here Introduction The US-Iran conflict shocked international markets and introduced upside and downside volatility across currencies, equities and commodities. Supply chains were disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important waterway passages for global commerce. Despite being deeply affected, though, cocoa prices remained relatively stable, as most impacts balanced each other out. In the first part of this blog series, we saw the m

When teaching about the coffee futures market, one common reaction we get from our students is a mix of confusion and discomfort: “How can there be just one major exchange setting rules for Arabica coffee all over the world?”. “Is it privately owned?”. “Isn’t that problematic?”. These are fair questions. Market dominance by a single corporation feels contrary to free and fair markets. While it is true that there are other peripheral Arabica coffee exchanges, like B3 futur

Coffee differentials have surged across distinct origins and varieties this year, especially so in Brazil, where past crops are being offered at multi-year highs in the physical market. This has effectively disrupted the build-up of ICE certified stocks, as differentials are not only far too high to justify delivery to the exchange, but also incentivize consumption of comparatively cheaper certified inventory. If unchecked, this draw down in certs could lead to rallying in th

Introduction At the end of February, the US and Israeli militaries launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint attack against the Iranian regime. This has involved extensive airstrikes, the destruction of the Iranian Leadership and retaliatory strikes against the US, Israel and their Arabian allies in the region. More significantly for the global economy, Iran has closed the strait of Hormuz, and the US has blockaded Iranian ports. Due to its extreme importance to the global ec

[read part 1 and part 2 ] Brazil is a big country, and its coffee production is not a monolith. It is in fact a series of microclimates, each with their own characteristics, strengths, and vulnerabilities. In order to gain true understanding of this quintessential coffee origin, we need to go deeper than talking about “Brazilian Coffee,” we need to understand the production regions. Understanding Brazil’s producing regions is key to forecasting Brazil’s coffee production, an

Strong price incentives during the 2023–25 cocoa bull market have driven a significant boost to Ecuador’s cocoa production, putting it on track to potentially surpass Ghana as the world’s second-largest producer. As a result, Ecuador is becoming increasingly important in the global cocoa scenario. In this blog, we analyze Ecuador’s position in the cocoa market, how it’s been rising to the top as an origin, and the key drivers shaping its supply. This piece serves as a cruci

Read part 1 here. In 1989 , the world order of coffee—the ICO Export Quota system—broke down, sending coffee prices spiraling. This eventually became known as the “coffee crisis”, perhaps the most infamous coffee market crash in history, and it transformed how coffee is priced and consumed globally. In the first part of this blog series, we explored Brazil’s coffee-market dominance through the lens of history and the different factors that shaped this immense producer. We’

Over the last two years, coffee prices surged to nearly 400 c/lb, the highest levels in history, largely driven by supply problems in Brazil. Today, once again, all eyes are on Brazil in hopes that a large crop could bring some much-needed relief to the market. This level of attention and importance raises the question: how did Brazil become such a dominant force in the global coffee market, and why is its production so much larger than that of any other origin? The answer

Read part 1 here In the first part of the Grinding Differences Across Regions blog series, we explored the mechanics of the European and Asian grinding hubs, the way both operated, and the differences between them. Through this lens, we understood how each region reacted to the 2024 cocoa rally and the subsequent price decline. For the second part, we will analyze the third and last region among the three most well-known cocoa grinding associations, ECA, CAA, and NCA. Beyon

Introduction The grinding figures were one of the main points of cocoa markets in 2025. Over the last year, we saw grinds collapsing in all the main regions, leading the accumulated NCA, ECA and CAA numbers to fall 6.7%. Beyond just the downtrend, though, 2025 grindings told a story that was more than “high prices hurt demand.” The same global bean shock hit every region, but the way it impacted each one could not be more different. While Europe saw a consistent decline, A

One of the biggest challenges that coffee roasters face is the volatility in price of their chief supply component: coffee beans. Over the past 5 years, coffee beans have fluctuated in price from 130 to 430c , and at times intraday swings have been as high as 40c. This means that you could face up to a 10% increase in price , simply depending on when you bought your coffee beans in the morning or in the afternoon! This exposure to market price fluctuations is known as price