Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th .   Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply.   In this article, we analyze what this ye

Read Part 1 here Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance   • Production: 700k–800k tons per year.  • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern.  • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero.  • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each.  • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug).  • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD.  • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD.  • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports.  Introduction   In the first part of ou

This week, we analyze the impact of untimely rainfall in coffee and sugar-harvesting origins such as Central America, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand. We also assess improving weather forecasts across key cocoa and cotton regions, while highlighting the risks that still warrant close monitoring.

This week, we look at the risk of excessive rain forecast for Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, and Thailand, which could negatively affect key coffee and sugarcane regions during harvest. We also review improving weather outlooks across the major cocoa and cotton origins.  Coffee   Brazil rain forecasts are generally satisfactory going into the 26/27 crop growth phase, while the main risk to coffee crops at this point would be excess rain in Central America, Vietnam and Co

This week, we discuss the flooding in Asia affecting Thailand’s sugarcane crop and Vietnam’s coffee regions, alongside the untimely rains across Europe, the UK, and Central America impacting sugar beet and coffee. We also analyze the risk of unwelcome rain in key cocoa-producing areas of Africa.

Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance   • Production: 700k–800k tons per year. • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern. • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero.  • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each. • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug). • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD. • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD. • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports .  Introduction   Cocoa is a unique market in part because it i

Last week, the White House announced an agreement to cut certain U.S. import duties on goods from select Latin American (coffee-growing) countries, while fully removing the baseline 10% tariff applied to Brazilian products. In this article, we will provide a framework for understanding the tariff impact on the coffee market, then we will examine these tariff changes and explain their implications for coffee futures prices. Finally, we will see what the next tariff moves could

I wrestled with whether or not to write this. Last Saturday, my wife of 16 years passed away in hospice care. Andrea had been in a coma-like state for the previous 2 weeks. She went into cardiac arrest after an asthma attack while I was out getting pizza with the kids. No warning, no chance to say goodbye. A consoling friend said to me, "life, as it turns out, is incredibly fragile." Very true, and for someone who manages risk, my emotions were completely unprotected. We have

After 3 consecutive seasons in which sugar was highly lucrative and prompted greater production in Brazil, the tables have turned — ethanol is now yielding higher returns than sugar, marking the first time this has happened in over three years. Price parity between the two indicates that ethanol currently holds a premium of around 1 cent over sugar, a gap that widens as sugar prices decline.  At the same time, Brazil has been boosting ethanol demand through measures such as t

Read Part one here : Cotton Origin Focus: China - Part 1 China Cotton Sector At-a-Glance   Production:  ~31 million bales annually (average last 5 years).  Leading Region:  Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (~90–93% of national output); minor production regions include Yellow-Huai (Hebei, Henan, Shandong) and Yangtze (Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui) river areas.  Cotton Type:  Primarily Upland cotton; Xinjiang produces significant volumes of premium Extra-Long Staple (ELS) cotton.  F

China's economic slowdown has finally reached the cotton sector: this year, China imported only 2.4 million bales of cotton (Jan-Jul),...

China Cotton Sector At-a-Glance   Production:  ~31 million bales annually (average last 5 years).  Leading Region:  Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (~90–95% of national output); minor production regions include Yellow-Huai (Hebei, Henan, Shandong) and Yangtze (Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui) river areas.  Cotton Type:  Primarily Upland cotton; Xinjiang produces significant volumes of premium Extra-Long Staple (ELS) cotton.  Farm Structure:  Xinjiang dominated by large-scale mechaniz

The expansion of Robusta coffee production in recent years has coincided with a rise in demand, as elevated Arabica prices push more...

Between July 10th and 11th, 2025, we interviewed 622 coffee producers from all coffee regions in Brazil to gather their views on the...

Every day I send out a #certifiedstocks #report to my free and premium subscribers because it is one of the most relevant and useful...

Exactly one year ago the Vietnamese differentials peaked at unbelievable high levels, a new high far higher than any historical numbers:...

(Read Part 1 here) Introduction   Brazil holds a special place in the history of cocoa production and trade. From a global powerhouse to...

Brazil Cocoa Sector – At A Glance   • Avg. Annual Production: 250 MMT (10-year average).  • Key Regions: Bahia and Pará (over 95% of...

In this exclusive report, we analyze the findings of our latest Brazil sugarcane farmer survey, which featured the views of associations...

Coffee and the USD are both selling off this morning in the wake of the US tariff announcement yesterday. This is an unusual combination...