Introduction Global cocoa markets are once again turning their attention to weather, as a strong El Niño is expected this year. After the 2023/24 cocoa shortage and a difficult production recovery in the following years, analysts had been anticipating improved cocoa production. Now, those hopes are under challenge, as meteorologists warn that a new El Niño event may emerge during the second half of 2026 and extend into early 2027. Cocoa production is highly weather-sensitive,

Read Part 1 here Introduction The US-Iran conflict shocked international markets and introduced upside and downside volatility across currencies, equities and commodities. Supply chains were disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important waterway passages for global commerce. Despite being deeply affected, though, cocoa prices remained relatively stable, as most impacts balanced each other out. In the first part of this blog series, we saw the m

Introduction At the end of February, the US and Israeli militaries launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint attack against the Iranian regime. This has involved extensive airstrikes, the destruction of the Iranian Leadership and retaliatory strikes against the US, Israel and their Arabian allies in the region. More significantly for the global economy, Iran has closed the strait of Hormuz, and the US has blockaded Iranian ports. Due to its extreme importance to the global ec

Strong price incentives during the 2023–25 cocoa bull market have driven a significant boost to Ecuador’s cocoa production, putting it on track to potentially surpass Ghana as the world’s second-largest producer. As a result, Ecuador is becoming increasingly important in the global cocoa scenario. In this blog, we analyze Ecuador’s position in the cocoa market, how it’s been rising to the top as an origin, and the key drivers shaping its supply. This piece serves as a cruci

Read part 1 here In the first part of the Grinding Differences Across Regions blog series, we explored the mechanics of the European and Asian grinding hubs, the way both operated, and the differences between them. Through this lens, we understood how each region reacted to the 2024 cocoa rally and the subsequent price decline. For the second part, we will analyze the third and last region among the three most well-known cocoa grinding associations, ECA, CAA, and NCA. Beyon

Introduction The grinding figures were one of the main points of cocoa markets in 2025. Over the last year, we saw grinds collapsing in all the main regions, leading the accumulated NCA, ECA and CAA numbers to fall 6.7%. Beyond just the downtrend, though, 2025 grindings told a story that was more than “high prices hurt demand.” The same global bean shock hit every region, but the way it impacted each one could not be more different. While Europe saw a consistent decline, A

Introduction 2025 was a tumultuous year for cocoa markets. Following the huge shortage of 2024, which led prices to reach their highest level in history, in the last year we saw a completely different picture, as the apocalyptic scenario of cocoa bean extinction did not materialize. Instead, traders were hit by a production rebound, while demand plummeted to its lowest level in almost a decade. As a result, cocoa did not carry on its dream of ever higher tops, but fell bac

Coffee While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest. Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb. In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows.

Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th . Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply. In this article, we analyze what this ye

Read Part 1 here Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance • Production: 700k–800k tons per year. • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern. • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero. • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each. • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug). • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD. • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD. • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports. Introduction In the first part of ou

This week, we analyze the impact of untimely rainfall in coffee and sugar-harvesting origins such as Central America, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand. We also assess improving weather forecasts across key cocoa and cotton regions, while highlighting the risks that still warrant close monitoring.

This week, we look at the risk of excessive rain forecast for Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, and Thailand, which could negatively affect key coffee and sugarcane regions during harvest. We also review improving weather outlooks across the major cocoa and cotton origins. Coffee Brazil rain forecasts are generally satisfactory going into the 26/27 crop growth phase, while the main risk to coffee crops at this point would be excess rain in Central America, Vietnam and Co

This week, we discuss the flooding in Asia affecting Thailand’s sugarcane crop and Vietnam’s coffee regions, alongside the untimely rains across Europe, the UK, and Central America impacting sugar beet and coffee. We also analyze the risk of unwelcome rain in key cocoa-producing areas of Africa.

Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance • Production: 700k–800k tons per year. • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern. • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero. • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each. • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug). • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD. • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD. • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports . Introduction Cocoa is a unique market in part because it i

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(Read Part 1 here) Introduction Brazil holds a special place in the history of cocoa production and trade. From a global powerhouse to...

Brazil Cocoa Sector – At A Glance • Avg. Annual Production: 250 MMT (10-year average). • Key Regions: Bahia and Pará (over 95% of...

Introduction This season, the arrivals in Ivory Coast (the world’s largest cocoa producer) have told a surprising and evolving story...

For over a year now, the chocolate industry has been facing an unprecedented increase in costs on cocoa beans. Prices have skyrocketed...

Read Part 1 here . In just seven months, the Ivory Coast, the undisputed juggernaut of cocoa production, will host elections featuring...