Introduction   2025 was a tumultuous year for cocoa markets. Following the huge shortage of 2024, which led prices to reach their highest level in history, in the last year we saw a completely different picture, as the apocalyptic scenario of cocoa bean extinction did not materialize. Instead, traders were hit by a production rebound, while demand plummeted to its lowest level in almost a decade.  As a result, cocoa did not carry on its dream of ever higher tops, but fell bac

Coffee   While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest.    Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb.    In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows.

Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th .   Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply.   In this article, we analyze what this ye

Read Part 1 here Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance   • Production: 700k–800k tons per year.  • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern.  • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero.  • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each.  • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug).  • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD.  • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD.  • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports.  Introduction   In the first part of ou

This week, we analyze the impact of untimely rainfall in coffee and sugar-harvesting origins such as Central America, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand. We also assess improving weather forecasts across key cocoa and cotton regions, while highlighting the risks that still warrant close monitoring.

This week, we look at the risk of excessive rain forecast for Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, and Thailand, which could negatively affect key coffee and sugarcane regions during harvest. We also review improving weather outlooks across the major cocoa and cotton origins.  Coffee   Brazil rain forecasts are generally satisfactory going into the 26/27 crop growth phase, while the main risk to coffee crops at this point would be excess rain in Central America, Vietnam and Co

This week, we discuss the flooding in Asia affecting Thailand’s sugarcane crop and Vietnam’s coffee regions, alongside the untimely rains across Europe, the UK, and Central America impacting sugar beet and coffee. We also analyze the risk of unwelcome rain in key cocoa-producing areas of Africa.

Ghana Cocoa Sector At-a-Glance   • Production: 700k–800k tons per year. • Main Regions: Ashanti, Brong-Ahafo, Western North, Eastern. • Cocoa Type: Mostly Forastero.  • Farm System: 800k+ smallholders, ~2–3 ha each. • Harvests: Main (Oct–Mar) and light (May–Aug). • Market: State-regulated by COCOBOD. • Pricing: Fixed farmgate price set by COCOBOD. • Economy: Cocoa is 2–3% of GDP, 20% of jobs, one-third of exports .  Introduction   Cocoa is a unique market in part because it i

Every day I send out a #certifiedstocks #report to my free and premium subscribers because it is one of the most relevant and useful...

(Read Part 1 here) Introduction   Brazil holds a special place in the history of cocoa production and trade. From a global powerhouse to...

Brazil Cocoa Sector – At A Glance   • Avg. Annual Production: 250 MMT (10-year average).  • Key Regions: Bahia and Pará (over 95% of...

Introduction    This season, the arrivals in Ivory Coast (the world’s largest cocoa producer) have told a surprising and evolving story...

For over a year now, the chocolate industry has been facing an unprecedented increase in costs on cocoa beans. Prices have skyrocketed...

Read Part 1 here . In just seven months, the Ivory Coast, the undisputed juggernaut of cocoa production, will host elections featuring...

At-A-Glance     Production : Annual cocoa production volume: Approximately 2.0 million tonnes (40% of the world supply)    Cocoa Types :...

From 2023 to 2024 Cocoa dramatically rallied in price, to an unprecedented $12000 per MT, more than double the previous unchallenged 1977...

Updated: May 22, 2024 In my quest to offer you the best information and resources available on the cocoa market, I will be doing a series...

In part B of my #CocoaMarket Report Focus on the #COT we will look at the #Disaggregated COT, how to read the COT, and my "Secret"...

Updated: May 21, 2024 In this second part of my series on essential reports for traders following the cocoa market, we will look at the...

One of the reports that serious Cocoa traders look at on a daily is the Open Interest reports. This report gives rapid insight into...