Soft Commodities Weather Update Jan 13, 2026
- Igor Bragato
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read
Coffee
While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest.
Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb.
In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows. African origins—Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Ivory Coast—are also harvesting under dry conditions and forecasts, which is favorable.
[Stay ahead in the coffee market with our Premium Coffee Research. Get timely insights on supply, demand, and price trends to make informed decisions.]
Meanwhile, excessive rain in Colombia and Central America seems possible, based on forecasts, which indicate more than triple the typical late-Jan rain. Heavy rainfall at this stage of harvest could lead to localized floodings and crop quality issues. The caveat is that forecasts have been wet for several weeks now, but we haven’t seen any decisive highlights of excess rain being a widespread problem or concern.
Sugar
Sugar cane and beet rain forecasts are mostly decent worldwide, with a few exceptions. Main risks include excess rain & flooding during Central America, China (beet) and Colombia harvest.
Brazil may experience a slowdown in rain in Jan-Feb. It shouldn’t be a major problem, as soils should be moist from good rains in Dec.
India, Thailand, Pakistan, and South China are facing dry forecasts, which are supportive for harvest. India has largely benefited from dry conditions so far during the harvest, which have driven rapid new-crop flows. This is a contrast to Thailand, where rains delayed the start of harvest and drier weather has only recently materialized.
Colombia, parts of Mexico and Centrals might see new crop flow disrupted by rain next 2 weeks. The caveat is that these are relatively small sugar producers (although they are key coffee producers).
[Get up-to-date sugar market insights with our Premium Sugar Research. Our reports provide data-driven analysis on crops, trade, and market trends.]
Most beet origins have dry forecasts, which are welcomed at this stage. Only exception is north China, which might see unwelcomed rain over the next 2 weeks. This increases storage deterioration risk in beet piles, reducing recoverable sugar. Main risk is therefore quality losses and logistical disruptions at this phase.
Cocoa
Weather conditions across key cocoa-producing regions point to a generally supportive outlook, albeit with some short-term variability. In West Africa, forecasts remain mixed over the coming months. Above-average precipitation is expected during February and April, which should help sustain soil moisture and crop development.
[Unlock the latest cocoa market intelligence with our Premium Cocoa Research. Receive expert analysis on global supply, demand, and price developments.]
However, rainfall is projected to be weaker than usual in March and May, introducing a degree of uncertainty. At this stage, the overall pattern suggests a low risk to the 2025/26 mid-crop, but the uneven distribution of rainfall warrants caution, as prolonged dry spells during sensitive periods could still affect yields if conditions deteriorate.
In South America, the outlook is more clearly positive. Except for March, most of the coming months are expected to see above-average precipitation in Brazil, creating favorable conditions for cocoa development. Rainfall levels in Ecuador are also projected to be adequate, which should support the 2025/26 main cocoa harvest and reduce weather-related risks in the region.
Cotton
For cotton, weather forecasts across major producing regions are broadly constructive, though not without localized risks. In Asia, conditions in China are expected to remain favorable, with average precipitation levels projected over the next few months, supporting crop establishment and growth. India shows a similar pattern, as most months are forecast to receive average to above-average rainfall, which should be beneficial for cotton development and help stabilize production prospects.
In North America, the United States is also expected to receive a good amount of rain in most of the coming months. These conditions should be supportive for the incoming 2026/27 cotton crop, particularly during early growth stages.
[Navigate the cotton market with confidence using our Premium Cotton Research. Gain access to supply, demand, and pricing analysis to stay informed]
In South America, forecasts are generally decent, with above-average precipitation expected in most months. However, a period of excessive dryness projected for March could pose a risk, as insufficient moisture during that window may damage cotton crops or limit yield potential if the dry conditions persist.
[Stay informed across coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton markets with our Premium Research. Get reliable analysis, forecasts, and market intelligence to guide your decisions.]
Comments