The coffee market is at a turning point, transitioning from years of tight balances toward a more comfortable supply environment. At present, the inversion is still intense, and destination stocks remain historically low after being depleted by consecutive global deficits that drove high prices.  However, today’s historically high prices will be hard to sustain if the global balance shifts as most expect: a large Brazilian crop is approaching and could drive a meaningful surplus in 2026/27 —...

Coffee   While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest.    Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb.    In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows. African...

Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th .   Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply.   In this article, we analyze what this year’s rebalance is...