The coffee market began the week with an extraordinary 49c/lb single-daily rally, the largest one in history on a cents-per-pound basis. When swings of this magnitude happen, questions naturally arise, and you may be asking yourself: “Why such a major rally? Why now?” “Was it because of frost scares in Brazil? Was it because of the El Niño?” In this article, we'll share our interpretation of what happened and explain the market mechanisms we believe were behind this rally that caught many...

In the 24/25 season, Uganda has emerged as one of the strongest coffee export stories in the global market. Export volumes surged to record levels in 2024/25 and have remained strong in the current season. And this is no coincidence: Uganda’s export strength reflects a deliberate push in its coffee sector. Supported by Uganda’s replanting programs, expanding acreage, and favorable weather, the country is steadily boosting production, as implied by the sustained high exports. In this...

Coffee prices fell 70c, or roughly 20%, in just three weeks, and when coffee markets move this sharply, questions naturally arise: what sparked the selloff, why did prices fall so abruptly, and why did this only happen when prices broke a certain threshold? In this blog, we break down the factors behind the coffee market’s fall and analyze how they combined to culminate in such a rapid selloff. What Caused the Selloff In short, the selloff was driven by a mix of Supply and Demand...