Coffee   While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest.    Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb.    In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows.

Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th .   Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply.   In this article, we analyze what this ye

This week, we analyze the impact of untimely rainfall in coffee and sugar-harvesting origins such as Central America, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand. We also assess improving weather forecasts across key cocoa and cotton regions, while highlighting the risks that still warrant close monitoring.

This week, we look at the risk of excessive rain forecast for Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, and Thailand, which could negatively affect key coffee and sugarcane regions during harvest. We also review improving weather outlooks across the major cocoa and cotton origins.  Coffee   Brazil rain forecasts are generally satisfactory going into the 26/27 crop growth phase, while the main risk to coffee crops at this point would be excess rain in Central America, Vietnam and Co

This week, we discuss the flooding in Asia affecting Thailand’s sugarcane crop and Vietnam’s coffee regions, alongside the untimely rains across Europe, the UK, and Central America impacting sugar beet and coffee. We also analyze the risk of unwelcome rain in key cocoa-producing areas of Africa.

Last week, the White House announced an agreement to cut certain U.S. import duties on goods from select Latin American (coffee-growing) countries, while fully removing the baseline 10% tariff applied to Brazilian products. In this article, we will provide a framework for understanding the tariff impact on the coffee market, then we will examine these tariff changes and explain their implications for coffee futures prices. Finally, we will see what the next tariff moves could

The expansion of Robusta coffee production in recent years has coincided with a rise in demand, as elevated Arabica prices push more...

Between July 10th and 11th, 2025, we interviewed 622 coffee producers from all coffee regions in Brazil to gather their views on the...

Exactly one year ago the Vietnamese differentials peaked at unbelievable high levels, a new high far higher than any historical numbers:...

Coffee and the USD are both selling off this morning in the wake of the US tariff announcement yesterday. This is an unusual combination...

The old joke goes: if you want to get a million dollars trading coffee, start with two million. (In other words, the only thing...

In this exclusive report, we analyze the findings of our latest Brazil coffee farmer survey, which featured 815 coffee farmers. This report includes total Brazil 25/26 crop forecast, a breakdown of the Arabica and Robusta crops, regional crop conditions and first-hand insights into several Brazilian growing regions.

Brazil is the dominant force in the global coffee market, it’s responsible for nearly 40% of the world's annual coffee production. The...

(Continued from Part 1) The New Paradigm   An old mentor of mine once said to me, “when someone tells you that its a new paradigm, run...

One widely held assumption I have heard for years is that global coffee demand is fairly stable.   There is a reason that it is generally...

The coffee market has skyrocketed to an unprecedented 400c, following years of prolonged inversion and a historic price surge, reaching...

Date: Jan 21-23rd Visited: Varginha, Três Pontas, Guaxupé, Areado – farms and cooperatives   Takeaways ·        There has been a visual...

The #Arabica #coffeemarket has rallied to unprecedent highs this morning, surpassing all-time highs of 330c by hefty 16c while breaking...

Disclaimer: This was a two-day field research trip, which included a series of discussions with a broad range of stakeholders. We...

The US #dollar is one of the many factors (of which fundamentals are primary) that influence the #coffeemarket. Notably in the last two...