The coffee market began the week with an extraordinary 49c/lb single-daily rally, the largest one in history on a cents-per-pound basis. When swings of this magnitude happen, questions naturally arise, and you may be asking yourself: “Why such a major rally? Why now?” “Was it because of frost scares in Brazil? Was it because of the El Niño?” In this article, we'll share our interpretation of what happened and explain the market mechanisms we believe were behind this rally tha

We are often told that option Greeks are very complex, and in fact this complexity is one of the reasons that many business and traders fear options or steer clear of them altogether. However, the option Greeks exist for one very simple purpose: they convert the vague and chaotic nature of option pricing into orderly specifics that enable you to make decisions. You can trade options without understanding the greeks, and in fact, you can even be quite good at it. However, thi

When teaching about the coffee futures market, one common reaction we get from our students is a mix of confusion and discomfort: “How can there be just one major exchange setting rules for Arabica coffee all over the world?”. “Is it privately owned?”. “Isn’t that problematic?”. These are fair questions. Market dominance by a single corporation feels contrary to free and fair markets. While it is true that there are other peripheral Arabica coffee exchanges, like B3 futur

Coffee differentials have surged across distinct origins and varieties this year, especially so in Brazil, where past crops are being offered at multi-year highs in the physical market. This has effectively disrupted the build-up of ICE certified stocks, as differentials are not only far too high to justify delivery to the exchange, but also incentivize consumption of comparatively cheaper certified inventory. If unchecked, this draw down in certs could lead to rallying in th

[read part 1 and part 2 ] Brazil is a big country, and its coffee production is not a monolith. It is in fact a series of microclimates, each with their own characteristics, strengths, and vulnerabilities. In order to gain true understanding of this quintessential coffee origin, we need to go deeper than talking about “Brazilian Coffee,” we need to understand the production regions. Understanding Brazil’s producing regions is key to forecasting Brazil’s coffee production, an

Read part 1 here. In 1989 , the world order of coffee—the ICO Export Quota system—broke down, sending coffee prices spiraling. This eventually became known as the “coffee crisis”, perhaps the most infamous coffee market crash in history, and it transformed how coffee is priced and consumed globally. In the first part of this blog series, we explored Brazil’s coffee-market dominance through the lens of history and the different factors that shaped this immense producer. We’

Over the last two years, coffee prices surged to nearly 400 c/lb, the highest levels in history, largely driven by supply problems in Brazil. Today, once again, all eyes are on Brazil in hopes that a large crop could bring some much-needed relief to the market. This level of attention and importance raises the question: how did Brazil become such a dominant force in the global coffee market, and why is its production so much larger than that of any other origin? The answer

One of the biggest challenges that coffee roasters face is the volatility in price of their chief supply component: coffee beans. Over the past 5 years, coffee beans have fluctuated in price from 130 to 430c , and at times intraday swings have been as high as 40c. This means that you could face up to a 10% increase in price , simply depending on when you bought your coffee beans in the morning or in the afternoon! This exposure to market price fluctuations is known as price

In the 24/25 season, Uganda has emerged as one of the strongest coffee export stories in the global market. Export volumes surged to record levels in 2024/25 and have remained strong in the current season. And this is no coincidence: Uganda’s export strength reflects a deliberate push in its coffee sector. Supported by Uganda’s replanting programs, expanding acreage, and favorable weather, the country is steadily boosting production, as implied by the sustained high exports.

Coffee prices fell 70c, or roughly 20%, in just three weeks, and when coffee markets move this sharply, questions naturally arise: what sparked the selloff, why did prices fall so abruptly, and why did this only happen when prices broke a certain threshold? In this blog, we break down the factors behind the coffee market’s fall and analyze how they combined to culminate in such a rapid selloff. What Caused the Selloff In short, the selloff was driven by a mix of Supply a

Do you want to know how coffee prices really work? Are you prepared for the mental work it takes to really understand the answer? In Part 1 of this series, we began answering the difficult question of how coffee prices work by breaking down trends and seasonality — the structural backbones of coffee price dynamics. But on their own, they do not explain some of the extremes in coffee price action, for example, why markets overshoot. Nor do they explain false breakouts, or

Do you want to know how coffee prices really work? Many coffee professionals spend years in the market without ever developing a deep understanding of how coffee prices actually work. And that’s perfectly fine: you don’t need to be a mathematician to have a successful career in coffee. However, there is a statistical framework that describes the way coffee price dynamics work: time series decomposition. This is not your normal casual social media reading. We’re going deep

The coffee market is at a turning point, transitioning from years of tight balances toward a more comfortable supply environment. At present, the inversion is still intense, and destination stocks remain historically low after being depleted by consecutive global deficits that drove high prices. However, today’s historically high prices will be hard to sustain if the global balance shifts as most expect: a large Brazilian crop is approaching and could drive a meaningful surp

Read Part 1 here The CTA Cupping System The Coffee Trading Academy Cupping System is a hybrid of the two methods we talked about in part 1 , that evaluates using a simple system across 4 categories. The Four Basic Categories (Acidity, Body, Flavor, Defects) The four categories evaluated are Acidity, Body, Flavor, and Defects. Acidity is the tartness experienced on the sides of the tongue in a good, black coffee. There are different types of acidity, for example citric i

This is part 1 of a two-part blog. Read part 2 here. Cupping is a unique and essential skill that is required of a coffee trader. Cupping, (i.e. coffee tasting or sensory analysis) is one of those peculiarities that makes being a coffee trader different from all the other types of physical traders out there. Sure, you might trade gold, cotton or oil, but can you take a sip of coffee and tell me, objectively, whether it is good or not? In this blog my goal is to provide you

2025 stood out as an unusual year of high prices in the coffee market. Following huge global deficits in 2021 and 2024, coffee stayed anchored to historically high prices, while experiencing significant volatility. Overall, 2025 unfolded in two phases: a bear market in the first half that failed to hold, and a bull market in the second half. Notably, price action reflected a changing mix of drivers, ranging from stocks and positioning to weather and political developments, a

Coffee While Brazil, Vietnam, Asia and Africa all looking decent on the aggregate of rain forecasts, there’s still risk of excess rain & flooding during Central America & Colombia harvest. Brazil has been benefitting from timely rain supporting crop development, and rain is expected to continue in Jan-Feb. In Asia, Vietnam, India, and parts of Indonesia are in harvest, with dry forecasts that should support harvesting activity and port operations amid new-crop flows.

Every year, usually around December, attention in the soft-commodity industry turns to the annual index fund rebalance taking place in early January, with the main execution period around January 8–14 th . Given the scale and somewhat predictable nature of index fund annual rebalance, it can offer valuable insights on the impact on futures prices, particularly in years when price performance across commodities has diverged sharply. In this article, we analyze what this ye

This week, we analyze the impact of untimely rainfall in coffee and sugar-harvesting origins such as Central America, Colombia, Vietnam, and Thailand. We also assess improving weather forecasts across key cocoa and cotton regions, while highlighting the risks that still warrant close monitoring.

This week, we look at the risk of excessive rain forecast for Vietnam, Central America, Colombia, and Thailand, which could negatively affect key coffee and sugarcane regions during harvest. We also review improving weather outlooks across the major cocoa and cotton origins. Coffee Brazil rain forecasts are generally satisfactory going into the 26/27 crop growth phase, while the main risk to coffee crops at this point would be excess rain in Central America, Vietnam and Co