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What's in a Frost?
The #weather forecast is showing #frost in one of the largest producing areas in #Brazil by Jul 1st, if this materializes then we could...

Ryan Delany
Jun 28, 20212 min read


GCA Stocks vs KC Stocks Which Determines Price?
We have a fundamental disconnect between #CertStocks which are approaching the 5 year highs and #GCAstocks which are flirting with their...

Ryan Delany
Jun 24, 20212 min read


Congratulations to the Inaugural Coffee Trader's Course Class!
A huge CONGRATULATIONS and THANK YOU to the inaugural class of the Coffee Trader's Course at the Coffee Trading Academy. Although I have...

Ryan Delany
Jun 22, 20211 min read


Tis the Silly Season
We have now officially entered the #SillySeason as we prepare for potential #Frosts in #Brazil. According to my #Seasonality report, this...

Ryan Delany
Jun 21, 20211 min read


The Doomsday and Mini-Doomsday Inflation Scenarios
The #FederalReserve's #FOMC met this past week, and the results are relevant to us in the #coffeemarket, and indeed all of the...

Ryan Delany
Jun 20, 20213 min read


The Truth about Inflation and Coffee
The #CPI numbers came out and they were high, even higher than expected. The numbers for May were an increase of 0.6% which was 50%...

Ryan Delany
Jun 10, 20212 min read


Who's the Smart Money Here?
The #coffeemarket has been consolidating for the last two weeks after its rapid rise up since the beginning of April. The question now...

Ryan Delany
Jun 9, 20212 min read


European Stocks Dampens Impacts of the Deficit
With the return and improvement of the European stocks, I think its important that we address the impact of the projected global deficit....

Ryan Delany
Jun 7, 20212 min read


Bearish Specs Appear
Over the last few days we have seen the new highs fail and fall along with the #bullish excitement. Meanwhile we have seen #openinterest...

Ryan Delany
Jun 3, 20212 min read


Are Rate Hikes Coming? Does it Matter?
#Currencies and #FX are notoriously difficult to predict because they do not exist in a vacuum, one #currency affects all others. That...

Ryan Delany
Jun 1, 20212 min read


*Is the Rally Here?*
Another big day in the #CoffeeMarkets this time spurred by two pieces of news: 1) Brazilian gov't is issuing water advisories in several...

Ryan Delany
May 28, 20213 min read


Half-Pregnant Coffee
You can't be half-pregnant, but that is exactly how the #coffeemarket looks right now. The technicals are equal parts #bullish and...

Ryan Delany
May 26, 20211 min read


#Inflation Trade Overdone?
Given the outsized influence of the #macro bullishness on the #coffeemarket, it is important to revisit this topic. What's concerning to...

Ryan Delany
May 24, 20211 min read


Don't Fight the Fed
Well the Macro picture has once again raised its ugly head. #Federalreserve Vice Chair Clarida said the weak April payroll report shows...

Ryan Delany
May 18, 20211 min read


Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) vs Sinovac vs Coffee
Update: Brazil to receive shipments Brazil to receive ingredients from China for 25 million vaccine shots in coming days (yahoo.com) Last...

Ryan Delany
May 17, 20211 min read


Flags and Pennants in Coffee Point Higher
With #technicalanalysis for #commoditymarkets, the key is to ask yourself is there a logical, #psychological phenomenon ? With #coffee...

Ryan Delany
May 12, 20211 min read


*The Commodities vs Coffee*
"When all you have is a hammer, all of your problems look like nails." As a "coffee guy" or "coffee gal", it can be very easy to get stuck in our worlds and lose sight of the big picture. For those of us who are immersed in #coffee market data and talk about the #coffeemarket on a daily basis, we tend to see everything in terms of coffee. When you publicly share a view of the #market, it is even more tempting to look at every day's price action as confirmation of our view.

Ryan Delany
May 11, 20212 min read


*The Morning After-a Coffee Market Post-Mortem*
I'm not a big fan of retrospectives, in general I would rather be forward looking then commenting on the past, but yesterday's price...

Ryan Delany
May 6, 20213 min read


#Bullish #Coffee Spreads Driven by #Fundamentals?
The back month calendar spreads are firm. U22/Z22 is backwardated as of this writing and H22/K22, K22/N22, N22/U22, are all > -1 and...

Ryan Delany
May 4, 20211 min read


Commodities Take a Break, Coffee Gets Support
We have been talking about the "macro" trade recently with the entire #commoditymarket getting a boost from the weak #USdollar and...

Ryan Delany
Apr 28, 20211 min read
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