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What's in a Frost?

The #weather forecast is showing #frost in one of the largest producing areas in #Brazil by Jul 1st, if this materializes then we could see price increases of anywhere from 15c to 95c. For now, the market is largely discounting this risk. There have been a lot of false alarms in years past, so some skepticism is perhaps warranted.

Analysis below.

Let's start with the facts: of the 3 free weather services I use, 3 are showing frost in #Parana, and 2 in #MinasGerais.

Let's break that down.

Parana has steadily lost