When the market rallied 26c in a day following the 7/20 Frost I casually remarked that I would have to look at the pre-2000s data to find similar ranges and a friend sent me a little note with two dates highlighted from 1994. Next to 6/7/1994 it said "1st frost!" +33.5c and next to 7/11/1994 it said "2nd frost!" +47c. Right now, we are on the cusp of such an event, or at least, that is the fear.
There are two challenges with this coming frost: the Frost Forecast and Price Action.
I use 4 different forecasts to evaluate Frost. The US, Canadian, European and Brazilian Meterological services. They all have their own nuances with some being more or less sensitive. Here is how they shake out:
Frost Risk Weather Services and their Predictions for Tonight