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Bad to Worse: Frost Update 7/22/2021

In my post from a few days ago, I said that the extent of the damage was not yet known. In the two days since then, the situation has gone from bad to worse. This is now likely the worst #frost in #Brazil since 1994, and it came at a time when the market cannot afford to lose the #production. Initial estimates from the July 19th/20th frost was 1 - 2 million bags lost. Now, the estimates have more than doubled to 3 - 5 million.

In the paragraphs that follow, I am going to quantify the frost risk and talk about what to expect.

Let's start with the numbers: