"When all you have is a hammer, all of your problems look like nails."
As a "coffee guy" or "coffee gal", it can be very easy to get stuck in our worlds and lose sight of the big picture. For those of us who are immersed in #coffee market data and talk about the #coffeemarket on a daily basis, we tend to see everything in terms of coffee. When you publicly share a view of the #market, it is even more tempting to look at every day's price action as confirmation of our view.
So it is important to take a step out of our world and take a look at the big picture to prove the "null hypothesis": the possibility that your view has absolutely nothing to do with going on.
This is the case today with coffee. I have a bullish view of 21/22 basis the deficit and the off-cycle Brazilian coffee crop. However, just because the market is rallying, doesn't mean that I'm right (nor does it mean I'm wrong).
Last week's price action jarred me out of that view because the market seemingly rallied 10c on nothing.