One of the most popular, important and “easy to use” #technical indicators is the Simple Moving Average (SMA). This simple indicator can be used to tell you several things about the #coffeemarket, however, it has one very important and primary purpose: a simple moving average allows traders to define and identify the trend. In this article, we will first cover why it is so popular, then we will define what the moving average is, what the logic is and how one can use it when
One of the most useful #TechnicalAnalysis indicators for #commodities in general, and the #coffeemarket in particular, is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). In this article, we will discuss what this indicator is, how it is constructed, and how it is interpreted when reviewing the #market. If you are interested in learning more about technical analysis, this indicator (along with many others) are taught in detail as part Day 3 of the Coffee Trader's Course. Why should you ca
#Coffeefutures have broken out of the 200-210 range, surpassed its post #frost high of highest 217.85, and even surpassed the highs of the 2014 #Brazil #drought. This puts the current bull #market as the highest #coffee prices in nearly a decade. How strong is this bull market, and where do we go from here?
From Brazil, Destination Stocks, to Chart, I break down some of the biggest drivers on price in the sections below. Brazil 22/23 Crop As per usual, the #coffeemarket de
It is a terrible feeling to wake up one morning and see that your position has gone against you. Many #exporters and #tradehouses have had good, rational positions on, positions designed to protect themselves, turn into a liability in this volatile #market. Many #roasters have been making good, rational decisions, decisions based on years of experience, and still found themselves in hot water over the last few weeks. I believe in #coffee and in the #coffeeindustry. We help
(Edit: An earlier version of this article erroneously quoted the MiFiD position limits rather than the ICE Eur Delivery Limits. This has been corrected.) Those of you following the #Robusta #market have seen why this #commodity has the nickname "GoBusta". Since Jun 21st the U/X #calendarspread this market has gone from full carry at -22 to a $24 #inversion as of 11:18am this morning. This likely reflects a "squeeze" in the market exacerbated by firm connie #diffs, #season
Over the last few days we have seen the new highs fail and fall along with the #bullish excitement. Meanwhile we have seen #openinterest rise 4k over the same period, the strongest two day increase since early May. The shorthand interpretation of OI is that increases of OI on down-market days mean new Spec Shorts and in this case it seems plausible. I have been hearing 2 common refrains that support this: 1) "the Brazilian #farmer is not selling (much) despite excellent pri
You can't be half-pregnant, but that is exactly how the #coffeemarket looks right now. The technicals are equal parts #bullish and #bearish. There is a strong uptrend but declining momentum. We have Bullish #triangle continuation and Bearish #doubletop forming. As is so often (frustratingly) the case in #TechnicalAnalysis, we need a #breakout confirmation to confirm the direction. This ambiguity confirms with the #Fundamentals at this point. There is a #bullish deficit th
Well the Macro picture has once again raised its ugly head.
#Federalreserve Vice Chair Clarida said the weak April payroll report shows "we have not made substantial further progress" on the Fed's goals for employment. This was not unexpected, many pundits had said as much given the data (and our poll suggested the same), but putting voice to the sentiment moved the #currencymarkets. Overnight, #FX traders sold off the dollar and this morning #Coffeetraders decided to have
With #technicalanalysis for #commoditymarkets, the key is to ask yourself is there a logical, #psychological phenomenon ? With #coffee this week we are seeing two classic examples of "continuation patterns". #Continuationpatterns are typically a consolidation before the #trend continues in the same direction. The logic and psychology behind #consolidation is pretty straightforward. Whenever there is a big move in one direction (the #trend), the appetite for buying or sellin
"When all you have is a hammer, all of your problems look like nails." As a "coffee guy" or "coffee gal", it can be very easy to get stuck in our worlds and lose sight of the big picture. For those of us who are immersed in #coffee market data and talk about the #coffeemarket on a daily basis, we tend to see everything in terms of coffee. When you publicly share a view of the #market, it is even more tempting to look at every day's price action as confirmation of our view.