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The Bear Case for Coffee

The #Robusta spec position hit an all time high of 43% of OI and #Brazilian #farmers are reportedly holding back sales, referring to $2/lb as "low prices". I recognize the #bullish #fundamentals as much as anyone, however, I think the conversation has become a bit one-sided and so I think it is fair to consider the #bear's angle.


Now with any good debate, you should start by acknowledging the strength of the opposing position. In this article, I will start with the bullish position, and then present the #bearish case, and why I think it is not being taken seriously enough.


Why the Market is above $2.


Supplies are tight.


If you are a #fundamentalist then price comes down to 1 thing: #stocks.


You can expand that to include the future expectation of stocks. But at the end of the day, for a #commodity with inelastic #demand, price will be determined by the amount of