top of page

The Bear Case for Coffee

The #Robusta spec position hit an all time high of 43% of OI and #Brazilian #farmers are reportedly holding back sales, referring to $2/lb as "low prices". I recognize the #bullish #fundamentals as much as anyone, however, I think the conversation has become a bit one-sided and so I think it is fair to consider the #bear's angle.

Now with any good debate, you should start by acknowledging the strength of the opposing position. In this article, I will start with the bullish position, and then present the #bearish case, and why I think it is not being taken seriously enough.

Why the Market is above $2.

Supplies are tight.

If you are a #fundamentalist then price comes down to 1 thing: #stocks.

You can expand that to include the future expectation of stocks. But at the end of the day, for a #commodity with inelastic #demand, price will be determined by the amount of