The Brazil precipitation outlook has made a dramatic turn around over the last few days, transitioning from dry forecasts igniting fears of a disastrous crop to predicting widespread and abundant rain for October, the main flowering period. Just a week ago, there was little confidence that rain would reach the coffee regions in time for flowering, but now there is nearly a universal agreement that they will arrive on schedule.

The period spanning 1997 to 1998 marked one of the most potent #ElNiño occurrences on record, exerting a substantial influence across the...

Intro As fundamental analysts, we believe prices are primarily driven by #supply and #demand. However, we also recognize the significant...

#Robusta experienced a dramatic rally from 1750 in N up to nearly 2500 in April, a rally of 40%. #Arabica experienced a similar though...

The coffee market has experienced an impressive rally recently, with both #Arabica (+34c,+19.8%) and #Robusta (+$27, +1.2%) markets...

Half-Pregnant We are in a particularly awkward moment in #coffee, and the stakes are high for the direction of price. Already faced by...

In #Coffee, and in many #commodities like it, stocks (inventory levels) drive price. This is particularly true in coffee because the...

Understanding the #SupplyandDemand (S&D) balance sheet is essential for any professional #trader, but can also be extremely daunting. ...

On Sep 1st, 2022 we spoke with Adilson Machado, the manager of Cocapec, one Brazil’s premier Coffee Coops. Adilson himself is deeply...

The #coffeemarket is in a very different dynamic than it was 3 months ago, and we are getting near to a new paradigm: the bear market. In...

#Tradehouses have shipped at least 18,000 MT of #Robusta from #Indonesia and #Vietnam to #Europe in the month of January and there are...

Yesterday, #Arabica #certifiedstocks dropped an impressive 70k and the #calendarspreads are going bananas. Calendar spreads in Arabica...

Our first rule of our coffee trading rules is “Know Brazil, know the BRL”. #Brazil is the powerhouse of the #coffeemarket. Boasting the...

#Coffee is a rapidly changing market and while conviction is essential, we need to be prepared to change our view when the facts change....

The #Robusta spec position hit an all time high of 43% of OI and #Brazilian #farmers are reportedly holding back sales, referring to...

A few months back I wrote about the +22 inversion in #Robusta #coffeemarket and how that market gets "squeezed". Since then, the F/H...

(Edit: An earlier version of this article erroneously quoted the MiFiD position limits rather than the ICE Eur Delivery Limits. This has...

We have now officially entered the #SillySeason as we prepare for potential #Frosts in #Brazil. According to my #Seasonality report, this...

Given the #EuropeanCoffeeFederation (#ECF)'s recent issuance of the stock report, I wanted to review the numbers and see what we can...