Technical Analysis is one of those topics that divides a lot of people in the #trading community--some people love it, and some people hate it. In this article, we show why #TechnicalAnalysis is so controversial, and what is the most productive way to understand technical analysis, and how to use it properly. **This article is adapted from a series of lectures from my Coffee Trader's Course.** Why Its Controversial One of the biggest complaints against technical analysis is t

#Coffee prices have crossed the 200 day SMA 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions, and last week marks the first time that this key support has been breached since the start of the current bull-market in 2020. Whatever the future may bring, the frost rally did its job and rallied prices from the 140s to the 260s, but now it is time to declare the frost rally over and done with. The market now needs to look to the future, and our assessment of the future will determine where pr

The #Robusta spec position hit an all time high of 43% of OI and #Brazilian #farmers are reportedly holding back sales, referring to $2/lb as "low prices". I recognize the #bullish #fundamentals as much as anyone, however, I think the conversation has become a bit one-sided and so I think it is fair to consider the #bear's angle. Now with any good debate, you should start by acknowledging the strength of the opposing position. In this article, I will start with the bullish

After last month's surprise GCA stocks report, many of us in the #coffee industry were watching closely this week's report, because the implications on price could be huge. What we saw was on the surface a relatively ho-hum number, but I would contend it was actually fairly #bearish. In the article that follows I explain how I interpret this report generally, and why this week's report was bearish for price. To explain the GCA stocks number from Friday, we will first look at

A few months back I wrote about the +22 inversion in #Robusta #coffeemarket and how that market gets "squeezed". Since then, the F/H more than doubled to a high of $67/MT. This is not simply a few trade houses "playing games" with the #stocks, but indicates some strong #fundamentals. I would argue that despite the impending #Vietnam crop, this #calendarspread still has #bullish fundamentals behind it and could even rally to new highs. Vietnam Before, I talk about why this c

In my quest to offer you the best information and resources available on the coffee market, I will be doing doing a series of posts about the various #reports that we use to understand and predict the futures markets. For this first post, we are going to talk about #seasonals. Seasonals are one of the most useful reports that we can look at in the #coffeemarket because they follow a logic, and they are directly relevant to price, but they do have their limitations. Let's

Back in October 2020, the Pied Piper of the Brazil drought led away all of the bearish Rats from the #CoffeeMarket, and now he has returned to collect payment. Either the market has to deliver some bullish data from the current crop or all of our new-found bullish speculator friends are going to disappear with the Piper. For months we have been hearing about the drought in Brazil causing a massive shortage of coffee and indeed the market has rallied from 105c back in Novembe