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Half-Pregnant Coffee

You can't be half-pregnant, but that is exactly how the #coffeemarket looks right now.


The technicals are equal parts #bullish and #bearish. There is a strong uptrend but declining momentum. We have Bullish #triangle continuation and Bearish #doubletop forming. As is so often (frustratingly) the case in #TechnicalAnalysis, we need a #breakout confirmation to confirm the direction.


This ambiguity confirms with the #Fundamentals at this point. There is a #bullish deficit this year and a long-lasting strike in #Colombia but a huge past crop, solid exports and potentially a large amount of origin stocks.


In the short term I'm concerned about a washout in the spec position. #Seasonality is bearish and if the #market has largely been supported by #currencies so far, then a macro move could make for some very unhappy spec positions.


Longer term (Jul-Dec), I have to think #Roasters will support this market on dips and that the deficit will test the depths of origin stocks. If that is the case, then the fundamental rally hasn't even started yet. If 150 is the starting point for the rally before any tightness in supply, where is the ending point? 175? 200? What if we need to price ration coffee? At what point do you stop buying coffee in the supermarket because its too expensive?




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