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End of the Rally?

Over the last month and a half #coffee has lost 50c or nearly 20% of its value from peak to trough after a historic #bullmarket that saw prices more than double from Jun 2020 to Feb 2022. The question that we are all asking ourselves now is this: is the rally over?

To answer this question, I will outline the setup that got us to this point, examine the new factors that have changed the calculus and identify some key signals that will offer a clue as to where we are going.

Supply and Demand Context

We are currently in a deficit market, and as per usual it was driven by #Brazil.