#coffeefutures

Coffee Trading Academy Blog

The Unexpected End of the Coffee Market Certs Crisis

Jan 5
4 min

The Unexpected End of the Coffee Market Certs Crisis

This year we saw the #coffeemarket ICE-NY certified inventory reach the lowest level in over 20+ years and with prices well above tenderable parity for the foreseeable future, it looked like there was no end in sight. Yet, over the last two months we have seen the certified inventory more than double from well under 400 thousand bags to over 800 thousand, with another 227k bags awaiting grading. How did this happen when Brazilian semi-washed, the cheapest tenderable coffee,

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Commodity Index Funds: Beyond the Rebalance

Ryan Delany

Dec 8, 2022
5 min

Commodity Index Funds: Beyond the Rebalance

Every year around December, those of us in #coffee (and in the commodity industry in general) start talking about “the rebalance.” While the #rebalance can be particularly impactful, especially when one #commodity vastly diverges from the pack, #IndexFunds in general represent a major source of cash flow in coffee and other commodity markets. As such a significant force, it is important for us to understand how they work, and what impact they can have. Aside from the annua

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End of an Era: Coffee Market Back in Carry

Ryan Delany

Nov 15, 2022
7 min

End of an Era: Coffee Market Back in Carry

The current Z/H #calendarspread has been inverted for an entire year (November 2021) and today, it touched a low of -2.6c and is currently trading @ -1.8c. The collapse of the inversion has been swift and violent, but more significantly, it opens the door for the final phase of the current Bear market in #coffee. What Happened and Why it Matters #Arabica is a market that is notoriously difficult to invert, which makes the 1 year long inversion all the more remarkable. However

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Ryan Delany

Nov 8, 2022
7 min

Coffee Supply and Demand Made Easy

Understanding the #SupplyandDemand (S&D) balance sheet is essential for any professional #trader, but can also be extremely daunting. For many #coffee and #commodity #traders and #analysts, we have a deep insecurity in our relationship to the fundamentals because of its complexity and the extent of the many unknowns. Despite (or perhaps because of) the difficulty of mastering the #SnD, it is a prized skill in our profession and a key driver to price discovery in the #coffeem

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Ryan Delany

Oct 20, 2022
5 min

What the Heck is going on in Coffee?

Today #coffeefutures traded below 190c for the first time since July 2021. Despite #coffee prices hitting a high in the 260s back in Feb and then trading in the 200s for well over a year, looking at the chart it is quite clear that we are in a bear market and have been for at least 8 months. Despite the current bear market, #calendarspreads remain inverted, #certifiedinventory has made new lows and the most recent #Brazil crop was worse than many had expected. So what the h

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Coffee Rallies 27c in 3 days, Bubble or Boom?

Ryan Delany

Aug 25, 2022
2 min

Coffee Rallies 27c in 3 days, Bubble or Boom?

Just a few weeks ago #coffee was below $20 and the downtrend from $250 had decimated many bulls. However, since that peak bearishness, we have seen a trend channel steadily recover #coffeefutures prices culminating in a 27c rally in just 3 days! This is not behaving like a bear market...or is it? The chart below is a graph of the anatomy of a bubble and I present it here as a cautionary tale. There are two sides to every story and I certainly will not deny that the market c

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Ryan Delany

Aug 16, 2022
3 min

Invasion of the Certs

There are now an impressive 263k bags of #coffee pending grading in Antwerp, and this puts a different spin on the bullishness of the certified inventory. The previous narrative had been that the #coffeefutures market was decertifying coffee to consume, which had sent calendar spreads skyrocketing to 20+ year highs. However, the appearance of nearly 300k bags of pending stocks has challenged this narrative. In this brief note, I'll talk about why Certs matter, how the pendin

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Ryan Delany

Jun 17, 2022
5 min

Cert Stocks Below 1 Million, What Next?

One of the key components that I use, when trying to ascertain fair value of #coffeefutures is the #certifiedinventory, and the outlook is...not so good. We have been seeing one of the largest cert draws in the history of #coffee and we recently passed an important milestone the 1 million bag threshold. Coffee is now below the 1 million bag level for the second time in just a couple of months, and unfortunately this trend looks set to continue. In this article, I will show w

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Top 10 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know

Ryan Delany

May 31, 2022
7 min

Top 10 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know

Candlesticks charts have become the gold standard across the trading world: from #coffeefutures to #bitcoin, these funky little charts are used to display the day’s price action in easy-to-read visual fashion. Since these charts display so much information on price action, they are prized by technical analysts who specialize in predicting future prices based on reading of past prices. In this article we cover 10 of the most commonly used #candlestick patterns and what they me

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Coffee Report Focus #5 – Certified Stocks

Ryan Delany

Mar 15, 2022
6 min

Coffee Report Focus #5 – Certified Stocks

Everyday I send out a #certifiedstocks #report to my free and premium subscribers because it is one of the most relevant and useful benchmarks for the #coffee industry to “calibrate” to. Yet one of most common questions that we receive is for clarification on the #certstocks. “Why should we care about the certified stocks?” To be fair, there are several important and not well understood facets to this report. In this article we will outline what this report shows and how to

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Understanding the US Dollar Impact on the Coffee Market - Part 1

Ryan Delany

Feb 18, 2022
7 min

Understanding the US Dollar Impact on the Coffee Market - Part 1

#Coffee is both a financial product and a global #commodity. It is cultivated, consumed, shipped and traded across almost every country across the globe. Due to its global nature, the US #dollar performs an outsized role as a common #currency in the #trade of this product. Notably, the two primary #coffeefutures #markets (ICE Eur and ICE US), are priced in #USD. This makes understanding the purchasing power of the US dollar foundational to understanding the price of coffee.

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Ryan Delany

Nov 17, 2021
4 min

Breakout of the Decade

#Coffeefutures have broken out of the 200-210 range, surpassed its post #frost high of highest 217.85, and even surpassed the highs of the 2014 #Brazil #drought. This puts the current bull #market as the highest #coffee prices in nearly a decade. How strong is this bull market, and where do we go from here? From Brazil, Destination Stocks, to Chart, I break down some of the biggest drivers on price in the sections below. Brazil 22/23 Crop As per usual, the #coffeemarket de

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What to Expect When Your Expecting (a Fed Press Release) *Coffee Market Edition*

Ryan Delany

Sep 22, 2021
3 min

What to Expect When Your Expecting (a Fed Press Release) *Coffee Market Edition*

In just a few short hours, the #FOMC (230pm EST) will be making a statement and the markets will be reacting. For people in the #coffee industry (and #commodities), what you need to know is that the overt expectation is for a #bullish #dollar which is #bearish #coffeefutures and commodities. However, that expectation may be subverted. I go over how that can happen below. The overt expectation is bullish the USD and bearish for coffee and commodities The basic relationship

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The Trade is Bullish (the Roaster is Not)

Ryan Delany

Sep 7, 2021
4 min

The Trade is Bullish (the Roaster is Not)

Like yin and yang, the Law of #Supply and the of Law of #Demand are complementary economic truths: When prices are high, supply increases. When prices are low, demand increases. This is normally reflected in the #COT. When prices rise we see the commercial short position rise and the commercial long position fall. Yet today things don't look quite that way: despite terminal prices of nearly 200 cents/lb, the Commercial short position is barely above average. Let's look at

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The Struggle for $2 Coffee, Comparison with 2014

Ryan Delany

Sep 2, 2021
3 min

The Struggle for $2 Coffee, Comparison with 2014

4 days in a row now #CoffeeMarket has tried and failed to break the psychologically significant 200 level. Back in 2014 #coffeefutures crossed $2 dozens of times before finally collapsing and ushering in a 1 year bear market which despite a reprieve in 2016 then continued into 2019. As a twitter friend said "No two patterns are alike, but they're unfolding very similar[ly]." Let's be real: with the worst #frost in a generation, a #drought, and dry forecast for next 4 weeks,

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Coffee Report Focus #2a: Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about the COT *but were afraid to ask

Ryan Delany

Aug 20, 2021
3 min

Coffee Report Focus #2a: Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about the COT *but were afraid to ask

In this second part of my series on essential reports for traders following the coffee market, we will look at the #COT. This report is a must for every #coffeemarket participant to follow because it provides crucial information for making price #forecasts. In the sections that follow, we will look at the 3 versions of the COT, How to read the COT and I will also share a key metric that I provide on my free report subscriptions (that isn't provided by most other distributor

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Why Coffee Certs are Different Now, and NOT Bearish

Ryan Delany

Aug 19, 2021
3 min

Why Coffee Certs are Different Now, and NOT Bearish

One of the most important data points to follow in the #coffeemarket is the certified stocks. Every day, I send out my #Coffee #CertifiedStock reports to my subscribers (available for free here) and the reason that I do so is because this report is one of the most useful ways to estimate #fairvalue of #coffeefutures that we have. However, this relationship has changed dramatically in the last year and I want to show how we need to adjust our thinking on this report. Over the

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Coffee Market Essentials package and discounts on training (see more options).