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Invasion of the Certs

There are now an impressive 263k bags of #coffee pending grading in Antwerp, and this puts a different spin on the bullishness of the certified inventory.


The previous narrative had been that the #coffeefutures market was decertifying coffee to consume, which had sent calendar spreads skyrocketing to 20+ year highs. However, the appearance of nearly 300k bags of pending stocks has challenged this narrative.


In this brief note, I'll talk about why Certs matter, how the pending stocks change this, and what to expect.




Why Certs Matter