I'm not a big fan of retrospectives, in general I would rather be forward looking then commenting on the past, but yesterday's price action was unique so I wanted to try and dissect it.
630am EST - Market was up 3c and change, thought this was peculiar and checked the weather reports: no frost, but coldness in Brazil and frost risk approaching the coffee areas. BRL was steady. Emailed my slightly bullish scorecard to my subscribers with a note saying that I didn't see any frost risk. I'm slightly annoyed that my view is bullish because my gut says mkt will correct the overly exuberant early morning buying.
Reached out to my London friends about why Mkt was up so early and we concluded it was macro view based on inflation comments by Yellen.