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European Stocks Dampens Impacts of the Deficit


With the return and improvement of the European stocks, I think its important that we address the impact of the projected global deficit. The fact of the matter is, that the ECF stocks are solid right now, but how will they stand up to the deficit?


There are two different ways of looking at the ECF stocks, but both are in excellent shape. Since the ECF changed how they are reporting stocks, we saw a large increase between the 2020 levels and the 2019 levels. However, even if we "normalize" this by choosing the same starting point, and apply only 2020 percentage increases to that starting point we are still at very high levels. This is what I have called "normalized" in my chart below.


In terms of stocks we are at 14.47 mm bags as of April, thats 1 mm bags more than 1 year ago, and 2 mm bags more than we were 2 years ago when stocks were low. Moreover, stocks in Europe typically increase through at least Jun if not August, so it is likely that they will still improve.