The back month calendar spreads are firm. U22/Z22 is backwardated as of this writing and H22/K22, K22/N22, N22/U22, are all > -1 and flirting with inversion as well. However, the driver here is a bit opaque.
We often hear in #coffeemarket that Calendar Spreads are one of the purest manifestations of fundamentals. The logic being that the long and short nature of the spread removes a lot of the noise from the macro picture (see correlation with #BCOM, #USD and #BRL).
Moreover, the commercials are also trading the back months more than the specs, who tend to stay in the liquid front months.
However, there is a problem with this line of thinking as well. The fact that there is less liquidity in the back months also means it is more reactive. The below chart shows the OI of these cover months in the red square.
If specs and prop trading didn't exist, then we could conclude that any inversion there is driven by fundamentals, however given the lack of OI, even a few small funds putting on a position could drive prices up over a few weeks. If things don't materialize for the fund as they anticipate, unwinding that position could decimate those spreads.
I don't know who's trading these back months. Could be roasters, could be specs or could be trade. But regardless of liquidity issues, these spreads are indicating that the bullish tail winds are there.
