#Coffee has confounded both bulls and bears with a sideways movement after one of the most dramatic bull markets in a generation. Since the initial rally 260c, certified inventory has fallen to 23-year lows and calendar spreads have inverted to levels not seen since the Brazil frosts of the 1990s. So where is coffee headed to from here? My view is that coffee probably has one more rally left in her, but then she is done, and the bear market will start. However, price predict

#Russia has begun aerial bombardment of #Ukraine, including in the capital city of Kiev this morning. What many had hoped (including me) would be a limited and bloodless territorial dispute is now looking like full-scale #war. As a military veteran of two wars, I do not speak lightly of the conflict, it will be devastating to those directly, and likely to seriously alter the global security dynamic that has existed since the end of WW2. However, my role is to offer insight

The #FederalReserve's #FOMC met this past week, and the results are relevant to us in the #coffeemarket, and indeed all of the #commodities. There were two big takeaways from the communications last week that were somewhat contrary, but the market interpreted them as #bullish the #USdollar. I think that bullishness may be unwarranted in a small way (the mini-doomsday scenario) and also I want to highlight what the Big Risks are here (the doomsday scenario). First, I'll recou

#Currencies and #FX are notoriously difficult to predict because they do not exist in a vacuum, one #currency affects all others. That said, I'm cautious that #interestrate hikes are coming and that this will put some #bearish pressure on the #commodity #markets. As a #coffeemarket analyst, there's three factors here we need to consider: 1) will the #federalreserve raise interest rates? 2) will that appreciate the #USDollar? 3) will this put #bearish pressure on #commodities

Given the outsized influence of the #macro bullishness on the #coffeemarket, it is important to revisit this topic. What's concerning to me here is that the #USdollar has continued to weaken, but many of the #commodities have come off quite a bit. Some of this is due to #bearish fundamental news (rains in #wheat for example), but given the synchronized move into a macro #bullish stance, I'm very cautious of a synchronized unwind. In particular, it seems clear to me that the #

We have been talking about the "macro" trade recently with the entire #commoditymarket getting a boost from the weak #USdollar and fundamentals in the #Ags. Today the #markets are taking a bit of a breather and #coffeemarket is no exception. The #BRL firmed hard though, ~2% on the day and this is supportive for #Coffee. With KC closing above that 145 resistance level (which is technically significant) and BRL doing a lot of its move after KC's close, Coffee is in a very stron