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#Inflation Trade Overdone?


Given the outsized influence of the #macro bullishness on the #coffeemarket, it is important to revisit this topic.


What's concerning to me here is that the #USdollar has continued to weaken, but many of the #commodities have come off quite a bit. Some of this is due to #bearish fundamental news (rains in #wheat for example), but given the synchronized move into a macro #bullish stance, I'm very cautious of a synchronized unwind.


In particular, it seems clear to me that the #FederalReserve has been trying to telegraph (as gently as possible) an end to #QE. As the market takes this more seriously then perhaps macro traders trying to get out while the getting is good.


That said, there is always a lot of uncertainty with #currencies.


When Fed members started making bullish dollar comments, the $DXY rallied a bit, but has since continued to decline.


#Gold has continued its bullish run, and this could simply be a minor consolidation in the #commoditymarkets.


As for #coffee, I'm worried that macro traders in coffee are fair weather bulls and may be spooked into leaving, especially if we get a technical break lower.


What do you all think?

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