Despite low certified inventory levels and a persistent inversion, the #coffeemarket has maintained a bearish trend and now even broken key support of the downtrend. From a chart's perspective, the bull market is over. The 200c level, a 1-year support reference, is long gone now. KC is currently in the 180c, which is a 14-month low. To be clear, this is the weakest chart coffee has printed since it has established itself above the 200c range a year ago. [Don't you just love
The Brazilian presidential elections are happening and the question that arises for us is: how does this affect the #coffeemarket? In this article, we offer you a perspective on what to expect from Brazil’s political economic scenario. We outline the present situation, provide an outlook on what can potentially happen from now and how various developments might affect coffee prices and markets in general. Background For those unfamiliar, Brazil uses a 2-round voting system.
#tradingquotes are fun and sometimes offer good insight, but obviously we can't take them as gospel. That disclaimer out of the way, I think Sir John Templeton here as succinctly outlined the generally accepted #bullmarket cycle in terms of our collective emotions. One thing we can say for sure, is that the #coffeemarkets are not euphoric. Using the below outline I'd say that we are somewhere between "skepticism" and "optimism". Using hard numbers: #KC is up ~35% in 2 years,
On 5 Year chart, we have resistance in #KC around the 135-140 level (Jul 2017, Sep 2017, Dec 2019, Aug 2020 and Feb 2021). This psychological barrier is tough to surmount. When there is no crisis, 140 is considered expensive in our collective psyche. Yet since at least May of 2020 we have been recording higher lows. This means that for those #trading #coffee we are consolidating on agreement for the fair price of coffee at consistently higher levels but still below the expens
I have often remarked on the inverse correlation between price and #commodity inventory (stocks). In #coffeemarket the two most relevant stocks are the #GCA stocks (= USA unroasted #coffee) and the #certifiedstocks (tenderable to the exchange). As you can see from the graphic below, in some cases you can basically just invert the certified inventory to see a very basic price model (lower inventory = higher prices). However, while Certified stocks were rapidly increasing from
#CoffeeRoasters added 13.5k lots of futures coverage to their positions in #KC last week. This is the most lots in 1 week that we have seen this year and brings the Commercial Long position up to the seasonal average. The Roasters are a constant buyer in the #coffeemarkets but they are called "smart money" for a reason--they tend to buy when prices fall. The danger is if they wait too long and let their futures coverage get too low, they may be forced to buy into rallies. Thi