#CoffeeRoasters added 13.5k lots of futures coverage to their positions in #KC last week. This is the most lots in 1 week that we have seen this year and brings the Commercial Long position up to the seasonal average.
The Roasters are a constant buyer in the #coffeemarkets but they are called "smart money" for a reason--they tend to buy when prices fall. The danger is if they wait too long and let their futures coverage get too low, they may be forced to buy into rallies. This infamously happened in 2016 and it can make for quite a rally.
The fact that Roasters are now at the seasonal average means that they are much less vulnerable to capitulation.
However, the other side of their position is the Spec. Specs have been in an uptrend in futures positions for the last 5 years and are near support.
This means that Spec Longs are at some of the lower positions in recent memory. Given the upcoming problems with the #braziliancoffee crop have to think that they will be looking for opportunities to buy.
The question is now whether the Shorts will take a shot at the market.
What do you all think?