The 23/24 coffee season ended in September, and some of the main producing countries have published their full-season export figures. Among the countries with available cumulative export data for the 23/24 season are Brazil, Vietnam, Honduras, and Uganda, while Colombia has one month yet to be reported.
Collectively, these origins are responsible for roughly 68% of annual global production, and since most of them (with the notable exception of Brazil) export nearly their entire crop, official export data can provide valuable clarity on crop size, often helping refine early estimates.
In this article, we discuss the 23/24 export figures recently disclosed from a few of the main coffee producing origins.
Brazil
Brazil saw record exports of 49.3m bags in the 23/24 season. This is by far the largest cumulative exports of recent years, exceeding the prior season by a hefty 12.7m bags. For reference, just this difference from 22/23 alone is equivalent to the size of a Colombia crop.
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The 23/24 figure reported by Cecafé is also considerably above the 7Y average exports of 38.3m bags by a hefty +26.1% margin, or 10 million bags, in absolute terms.
Vietnam
Vietnam exports were disclosed at 24.2m bags in 23/24 season, according to data compiled by the General Department of Vietnam Customs. This is well off last season’s 27.4m bags, a notable reduction of 3m bags that seems to confirm a smaller crop.
Monthly data shows exactly when Vietnam exports started to collapse. They got an aggressive start on exports early into the season, incentivized by the boost in Robusta prices and strong demand, starting back in Nov 2023.
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Exports began to decline sharply from April onward, remaining well below average for the remainder of the season, even with high Robusta prices. One can speculate that Vietnam exporters front loaded most the crop in Nov-Jan, encouraged by the bull market, which left them with limited volume to ship for the remaining of the season.
Honduras
Honduras exported a total 4.71m bags in the 23/24 season, according to data compiled by Adecafeh. This represents a -10.7% decline (~540k bags) against the 5.25m exported in the prior season, while very close to the 4.69m bags exported in 21/22. Ultimately, it’s well below the 5.87m bags exported in the 20/21 season, which was the largest crop of the last 5 years.
Uganda
23/24 Uganda exports disclosed at 6.34m bags, the highest since 20/21, according to data compiled by the UCDA (Uganda Coffee Development Authority). Uganda exports ultimately saw a steady recovery from 21/22 season (5.85m bags).
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Of the 6.34m bags exported in 23/24, 5.54m bags (87.4%) were Robusta coffees, whereas the remaining 799k bags (12.6%) were Arabica coffees. For reference, on a 3-year average basis, Robusta and Arabica beans have corresponded to 85.3% and 14.7% of Uganda exports, respectively.
Exports improvement this season can be largely attributed to the boost in shipments from May to Aug. This period ultimately matches the harvest of the mid-crop in Uganda.
Colombia
Colombia has one month left of exports to calculate before completing the 23/24 coffee year, but the general trend points to a considerable increase in exports from the 22/23 towards 21/22 levels.
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Cumulative exports amount to 11.67m bags from Oct to Aug. If we consider Sep exports to be somewhere close to 900k bags (roughly the average of this month in the last 3 years), then 23/24 Colombia exports should fall around 12.5m bags.
Conclusions
On the Arabica side, Brazil and Colombia exports have increases YoY in 23/24. This is especially notable for Brazil, which saw a dramatic increase to record highs. Honduras’ exports, on the other hand, saw a setback from the prior season.
Exports from Robusta origins Vietnam and Uganda saw a notable decline and a modest increase, respectively. That said, 200k bags YoY exports increase from Uganda is insufficient to compensate for the 3m bags YoY decrease from Vietnam.
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