top of page

More Dry Weather in Brazil: Cause for Concern?

Those of you who receiving my premium reports have seen me discussing the weather in #Brazil for some time now, and I wanted to open it up for public discussion. The fact of the matter is this: after enjoying an impressive recovery in rainfall in Sep and Oct, the last several weeks of rain has been rather disappointing.

My (tldr) view is that even though the #precipitation has been abnormally bad, the current forecast suggests that the #crop will not be adversely affected---however, it does open the crop up to a substantial risk in January.

In this article, I will support this claim by providing some background on where the recent past puts the coffee plants, what the current forecast is and how it opens the plants up to risk.

Recent past

The #frost and #drought from this past season has wrought havoc on the current 22/23 crop that is developing in Brazil. We can see in the below graphic that the drought in 2020 and 2021 caused significant damage to the branch growth and #flowering potential for 22/23. On top of this was the catastrophic frosts that further decimated the potential of what was supposed to have been a bumper crop.

For more on this you can