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Don't Fight the Fed

Updated: May 25, 2021

Well the Macro picture has once again raised its ugly head. #Federalreserve Vice Chair Clarida said the weak April payroll report shows "we have not made substantial further progress" on the Fed's goals for employment. This was not unexpected, many pundits had said as much given the data (and our poll suggested the same), but putting voice to the sentiment moved the #currencymarkets.


Overnight, #FX traders sold off the dollar and this morning #Coffeetraders decided to have a try at replaying the 10c move. Much like last time, the #market was up 4.5c before 7am US time, and the market continued to rally through out the morning. However, this time, the #USD has not quite followed through as much and the shock of last week just isn't there.


Instead of frenzied phone calls and text messages, today's price was met with "well, it IS coffee...".


I don't want to make too little of this...4.5c in a day is nothing to sneeze at, and there are still #bullish factors aplenty, but to me the fear isn't there today.


Going forward, the restart of the #Brazil#vaccine shipments and the continued weakness in the USD is supportive for coffee. We will have to see how it plays out.


What do you all think? Is this just the beginning of a coffee rally or is this overplayed?


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