In just a few short hours, the #FOMC (230pm EST) will be making a statement and the markets will be reacting. For people in the #coffee industry (and #commodities), what you need to know is that the overt expectation is for a #bullish #dollar which is #bearish #coffeefutures and commodities. However, that expectation may be subverted. I go over how that can happen below. The overt expectation is bullish the USD and bearish for coffee and commodities The basic relationship

Back in October 2020, the Pied Piper of the Brazil drought led away all of the bearish Rats from the #CoffeeMarket, and now he has returned to collect payment. Either the market has to deliver some bullish data from the current crop or all of our new-found bullish speculator friends are going to disappear with the Piper. For months we have been hearing about the drought in Brazil causing a massive shortage of coffee and indeed the market has rallied from 105c back in Novembe

The #FederalReserve's #FOMC met this past week, and the results are relevant to us in the #coffeemarket, and indeed all of the #commodities. There were two big takeaways from the communications last week that were somewhat contrary, but the market interpreted them as #bullish the #USdollar. I think that bullishness may be unwarranted in a small way (the mini-doomsday scenario) and also I want to highlight what the Big Risks are here (the doomsday scenario). First, I'll recou