The #coffeemarket has been consolidating for the last two weeks after its rapid rise up since the beginning of April. The question now is where to from here? And I think the price action for the last few days has been telling. My suspicion is that #coffeeRoasters are using this opportunity to add to their longs now that we have come off of the highs. My logic is what I would describe as "contrary" morning price action. For the last few days we have been seeing buying in th

Over the last few days we have seen the new highs fail and fall along with the #bullish excitement. Meanwhile we have seen #openinterest rise 4k over the same period, the strongest two day increase since early May. The shorthand interpretation of OI is that increases of OI on down-market days mean new Spec Shorts and in this case it seems plausible. I have been hearing 2 common refrains that support this: 1) "the Brazilian #farmer is not selling (much) despite excellent pri

With #technicalanalysis for #commoditymarkets, the key is to ask yourself is there a logical, #psychological phenomenon ? With #coffee this week we are seeing two classic examples of "continuation patterns". #Continuationpatterns are typically a consolidation before the #trend continues in the same direction. The logic and psychology behind #consolidation is pretty straightforward. Whenever there is a big move in one direction (the #trend), the appetite for buying or sellin