In the 24/25 season, Uganda has emerged as one of the strongest coffee export stories in the global market. Export volumes surged to record levels in 2024/25 and have remained strong in the current season. And this is no coincidence: Uganda’s export strength reflects a deliberate push in its coffee sector. Supported by Uganda’s replanting programs, expanding acreage, and favorable weather, the country is steadily boosting production, as implied by the sustained high exports. In this...

Coffee prices fell 70c, or roughly 20%, in just three weeks, and when coffee markets move this sharply, questions naturally arise: what sparked the selloff, why did prices fall so abruptly, and why did this only happen when prices broke a certain threshold? In this blog, we break down the factors behind the coffee market’s fall and analyze how they combined to culminate in such a rapid selloff. What Caused the Selloff In short, the selloff was driven by a mix of Supply and Demand...

Do you want to know how coffee prices really work? Are you prepared for the mental work it takes to really understand the answer? In Part 1 of this series, we began answering the difficult question of how coffee prices work by breaking down trends and seasonality — the structural backbones of coffee price dynamics. But on their own, they do not explain some of the extremes in coffee price action, for example, why markets overshoot. Nor do they explain false breakouts, or why being right...