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Ryan Delany
Aug 9, 20214 min read
Coffee Report Focus #1: Seasonals
In my quest to offer you the best information and resources available on the coffee market, I will be doing doing a series of posts about...
2,213 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Aug 5, 20215 min read
A Macro Boon for Coffee
Yesterday the #BrazilianCentral Bank announced a rate increase of 1% to combat the rising #inflation. This is the largest increase since...
422 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Aug 4, 20213 min read
A Curious Coffee COT Report
Last week's #COT contained a curious fact: during the rally up above 200 cents the #specs actually sold rather than bought. This is...
600 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 27, 20213 min read
Volatility and Inversion in the Calendar Spreads
The #Arabica #coffeemarket was inverted by 5 bps in N22/U22 as of 7:18am. This is VERY unusual. I'm not trying to be alarmist here, I...
680 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 26, 20214 min read
Margin Requirements and Frost #3: What to Expect
Today, the #coffeemarket (#Arabica) rallied +26c at the highs today to 215.20 in September based on #margin increases and renewed #Frost...
658 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 22, 20214 min read
Bad to Worse: Frost Update 7/22/2021
In my post from a few days ago, I said that the extent of the damage was not yet known. In the two days since then, the situation has...
711 views2 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 13, 20212 min read
The Pied Piper of Coffee
Back in October 2020, the Pied Piper of the Brazil drought led away all of the bearish Rats from the #CoffeeMarket, and now he has...
186 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 8, 20213 min read
FOMC Might be Bullish Coffee
I read the Federal Reserve minutes so you don't have to! Steady as she goes from the #FederalReserve. This may disappoint #USD bulls who...
70 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 2, 20212 min read
Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact: Coffee Frost Risk in 2021
"Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact" is a favorite phrase in the coffee community, and it is one that we hear every year around this time of...
169 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 28, 20212 min read
What's in a Frost?
The #weather forecast is showing #frost in one of the largest producing areas in #Brazil by Jul 1st, if this materializes then we could...
208 views1 comment
Ryan Delany
Jun 20, 20213 min read
The Doomsday and Mini-Doomsday Inflation Scenarios
The #FederalReserve's #FOMC met this past week, and the results are relevant to us in the #coffeemarket, and indeed all of the...
172 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 10, 20212 min read
The Truth about Inflation and Coffee
The #CPI numbers came out and they were high, even higher than expected. The numbers for May were an increase of 0.6% which was 50%...
234 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 9, 20212 min read
Who's the Smart Money Here?
The #coffeemarket has been consolidating for the last two weeks after its rapid rise up since the beginning of April. The question now...
126 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 3, 20212 min read
Bearish Specs Appear
Over the last few days we have seen the new highs fail and fall along with the #bullish excitement. Meanwhile we have seen #openinterest...
133 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 1, 20212 min read
Are Rate Hikes Coming? Does it Matter?
#Currencies and #FX are notoriously difficult to predict because they do not exist in a vacuum, one #currency affects all others. That...
134 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
May 26, 20211 min read
Half-Pregnant Coffee
You can't be half-pregnant, but that is exactly how the #coffeemarket looks right now. The technicals are equal parts #bullish and...
284 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
May 24, 20211 min read
#Inflation Trade Overdone?
Given the outsized influence of the #macro bullishness on the #coffeemarket, it is important to revisit this topic. What's concerning to...
30 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
May 16, 20211 min read
Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) vs Sinovac vs Coffee
Update: Brazil to receive shipments Brazil to receive ingredients from China for 25 million vaccine shots in coming days (yahoo.com) Last...
35 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
May 11, 20212 min read
*The Commodities vs Coffee*
"When all you have is a hammer, all of your problems look like nails." As a "coffee guy" or "coffee gal", it can be very easy to get...
49 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
May 4, 20211 min read
#Bullish #Coffee Spreads Driven by #Fundamentals?
The back month calendar spreads are firm. U22/Z22 is backwardated as of this writing and H22/K22, K22/N22, N22/U22, are all > -1 and...
52 views0 comments
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